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Turkey’s Economic Outlook : Inflation Report – Octorber 2020

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Source: Türkiye İş Bankası

Turkey’s economic outlook on monthly basis based on main indicators, monetary policy and anticipatory meetings.

For original report including graphics and numeric values, please see the attached PDF file below.

Monthly CPI came in at 2.13% in October.
In October, CPI increased by 2.13% mom, in line with the expectations. Domestic PPI (D-PPI) posted an increase of 3.55% in this period.

Annual D-PPI inflation increased to 18.20%.
Annual CPI, which followed a flat course in July-September period, reached its highest level since February with 11.89% in October. Gaining momentum since June, D-PPI inflation hit 15-month high with 18.20% in this period.

Rapid increase in clothing and footwear prices in October…
In October, prices rose in 10 out of the 12 main spending groups on a monthly basis. In this period, the clothing and footwear group, where prices increased most rapidly by 6.8%, pulled the monthly CPI inflation up by 42 bps. In the food group, which made the highest contribution to CPI inflation with 70 bps mom, the increase in prices of fresh fruit and vegetables drew attention. Prices decreased slightly in the alcoholic beverages and tobacco group, as well as in the entertainment and culture group in October.

The rise in core inflation indicators continued in October.
The monthly increase in CPI excluding seasonal products was 1.6% in October, below the headline inflation. The annual upward trend since August in the core inflation indicators B (CPI excluding unprocessed food products, energy, alcoholic beverages and tobacco and gold) and C (CPI excluding energy, food and non-alcoholic beverages, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and gold), which were closely monitored by the CBRT, continued in October. Annual increases in B and C indices were 12% and 11.5%, respectively.

Food products and basic metals stood out in D-PPI inflation.
In October, among the sub-sectors of D-PPI, prices of coke and refined petroleum products recorded the highest increase with 5.9% mom. Food group made the highest contribution to monthly D-PPI inflation with 62 bps in this period, followed by basic metals group with 57 bps. The crude petroleum and natural gas sector, where prices fell rapidly by 6.1% in October, pulled the D-PPI down by 2 bps. Prices in the basic pharmaceutical products sector also declined slightly by 0.2% mom.

Expectations…
In the last Inflation Report of the year, CBRT increased its inflation forecast for 2020 from 8.9% to 12.1%. Considering the recent depreciation of the TRY and the exchange rate pass-through effect, which is still at high levels, upward pressures on inflation are expected to continue.

Turkey’s economic outlook on monthly basis based on main indicators, monetary policy and anticipatory meetings.

For original report including graphics and numeric values, please see the attached PDF file below.

Monthly CPI came in at 2.13% in October.
In October, CPI increased by 2.13% mom, in line with the expectations. Domestic PPI (D-PPI) posted an increase of 3.55% in this period.

Annual D-PPI inflation increased to 18.20%.
Annual CPI, which followed a flat course in July-September period, reached its highest level since February with 11.89% in October. Gaining momentum since June, D-PPI inflation hit 15-month high with 18.20% in this period.

Rapid increase in clothing and footwear prices in October…
In October, prices rose in 10 out of the 12 main spending groups on a monthly basis. In this period, the clothing and footwear group, where prices increased most rapidly by 6.8%, pulled the monthly CPI inflation up by 42 bps. In the food group, which made the highest contribution to CPI inflation with 70 bps mom, the increase in prices of fresh fruit and vegetables drew attention. Prices decreased slightly in the alcoholic beverages and tobacco group, as well as in the entertainment and culture group in October.

The rise in core inflation indicators continued in October.
The monthly increase in CPI excluding seasonal products was 1.6% in October, below the headline inflation. The annual upward trend since August in the core inflation indicators B (CPI excluding unprocessed food products, energy, alcoholic beverages and tobacco and gold) and C (CPI excluding energy, food and non-alcoholic beverages, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and gold), which were closely monitored by the CBRT, continued in October. Annual increases in B and C indices were 12% and 11.5%, respectively.

Food products and basic metals stood out in D-PPI inflation.
In October, among the sub-sectors of D-PPI, prices of coke and refined petroleum products recorded the highest increase with 5.9% mom. Food group made the highest contribution to monthly D-PPI inflation with 62 bps in this period, followed by basic metals group with 57 bps. The crude petroleum and natural gas sector, where prices fell rapidly by 6.1% in October, pulled the D-PPI down by 2 bps. Prices in the basic pharmaceutical products sector also declined slightly by 0.2% mom.

Expectations…
In the last Inflation Report of the year, CBRT increased its inflation forecast for 2020 from 8.9% to 12.1%. Considering the recent depreciation of the TRY and the exchange rate pass-through effect, which is still at high levels, upward pressures on inflation are expected to continue.

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