Main indicators of Turkish economy compiled by Obervatoire Turquie Contemporaine. Unemployment rates, well being, price indexes, growth rates and projections, capacity indexes and many more indicators compiled on a monthly basis. Based on July 2019 data, significant developments and changes underlined here:
1-Central Bank Governor declared the official interest rate down for 500 points to 19.7%. Latest inflation rate end of July is 16,6 %. Central Bank’s new price estimation for 2019 is 13,9 %. The leading Turkish bank, İş Bankası, finds this projection consistent with money-banking market indicators.
2- Interest rate,Turkish risk index (CDS), dollar and euro came down after Central Bank’s decision. But the effect will be temporarily.
3-After Moody’s, Fitch also downgraded Turkey’s credit note. Both declared that the economic uncertainty goes on.
4- US reaction to the purchase of the S-400 missiles from Russia was to be clarified by the end of July. It has not been announced yet but the US is warning Turkey not to go for military maneuvers in Syria. Any decision will have a negative impact on Turkey’s all economic indicators latest end of September.
5-Foreigntrade gap is shortened. The overall decrease is nearly 50 %. In other words, Turkey cuts down its investment and semi investment imports, which will have further negative effect on the growth rate. The expectation is between (-) 2-2,5%.
6-Unemployment figure in April’19 was the highest of the past 10 years. Youth unemployment has reached 25,5 %.
7-Budgetdeficit has reached 78 Billion TL. It is a historic high. The 4.4 % rate of credits under banking supervision is the highest since 2010.