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Turkey’s Economic Outlook : Observatory Report-8 (August 2019)

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Main indicators of Turkish economy compiled by Obervatoire Turquie Contemporaine. Unemployment rates, well being, price indexes, growth rates and projections, capacity indexes and many more indicators compiled on a monthly basis. Based on July 2019 data, significant developments and changes underlined here:

1-Central Bank Governor  declared  the  official interest rate  down  for 500 points to 19.7%. Latest inflation rate end of July is 16,6 %. Central Bank’s new  price estimation for 2019 is 13,9 %. The  leading Turkish bank,  İş Bankası, finds this projection  consistent  with money-banking  market indicators. 

 2- Interest rate,Turkish risk index (CDS), dollar and euro came down after Central Bank’s decision. But the  effect will be temporarily. 

3-After  Moody’s, Fitch also  downgraded Turkey’s credit note. Both  declared that the economic uncertainty goes on. 

4- US reaction to the purchase of the S-400 missiles from Russia was to be clarified by the end of July. It has not been announced yet but the  US is warning Turkey not to go for military   maneuvers in Syria. Any decision will have a negative impact on Turkey’s all economic indicators latest end of September.

5-Foreigntrade  gap is  shortened. The overall  decrease is nearly 50 %. In other words, Turkey cuts down its investment and semi investment  imports, which will have further negative effect on the growth rate. The expectation is  between (-) 2-2,5%.

6-Unemployment  figure in April’19 was the highest of the past 10 years. Youth unemployment has reached  25,5 %.

7-Budgetdeficit  has reached 78 Billion TL. It is a  historic high. The 4.4 % rate of credits under banking supervision is the highest since 2010.     

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