The current war with Iran represents a pivotal moment in the history of the Middle East, plunging the region into unprecedented uncertainty and potentially leading to prolonged instability in an already volatile region. While many around the world viewed the weakening of Iran and its proxies in the region as a gain, a closer look reveals that the situation is far from ideal and fraught with risks. The primary concern is who will fill the power vacuum created by Iran’s weakness. If Turkey is poised to fill this void, the calculations will be different for Israel, Egypt, and Greece.
Between opportunity and risk
Ankara views Iran’s weakness as an opportunity for expansion after four years during which Turkey has strengthened its influence in the face of Iranian influence in Syria, the Caucasus, Iraq, and on the Kurdish issue. Ankara has achieved gains on every front where Tehran has been losing ground. Despite Turkey’s opportunity to expand at the expense of a weakened Iran, several risks exist: destabilizing the Gulf and impacting energy markets, which would affect the Turkish economy.
Turkey would also face a crisis if refugees from Iran were to flee, and there is the possibility that internal unrest in Iran could pave the way for Kurdish autonomy linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) within Iran.
It has always desired a weak Iran to get an advantage and a strong Iran to protect its borders. The continuation of the Islamic regime in Tehran serves Erdogan’s regional ambitions better than a democratic Iran allied with the West, which would ensure the continued operation of its proxy terrorist network – including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza – targeting Israel.
Therefore, the Turkish government will attempt to play a mediating role to stop this war and find a way out, not out of love for Tehran, but out of fear of the repercussions of the regime’s collapse.
Israel confronts Turkey
The powerful player currently threatening Turkey’s ambitions is Israel. The vacuum left by Iran will significantly enhance Israeli influence in the region and solidify its freedom of action. Therefore, one of the consequences of this war is already beginning to emerge: an escalation of hostility between Turkey and Israel, which could push them toward a protracted confrontation that will effectively begin after the current war.
This was clearly evident in Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s initial response to the war. He blamed Netanyahu for igniting the conflict and condemned the Israeli strikes as “provocations,” without any mention of the American military role. Ankara believes that Trump was dragged into the war by Israel, which is determined to reshape the Middle East.
On the other hand, Iranian strikes on the Gulf states will push them to redefine their relationship with Israel, after witnessing Iranian missiles in their skies. However, at the same time, the Gulf Cooperation Council is expected to strengthen its ties with Turkey, coinciding with its rapprochement with Israel as well. This gradually reveals the shape of the new Middle East after the war.
Egypt and Greece
Egypt is currently besieged by wars and unrest on all sides. Therefore, the Egyptian administration is rushing to intervene to stop the ongoing war as quickly as possible and prevent it from escalating into a protracted conflict, which would be costly for the Egyptian economy due to disruptions in Suez Canal traffic and Gulf investments.
Regarding the struggle for influence, Cairo is concerned about increasing Israeli hegemony in the region. It also fears the growing Turkish influence, which is expanding and encircling Egypt. Egyptian politicians have often stated privately that Egypt is caught between three competing regional powers: Israel, Iran, and Turkey, all of which pose an equally serious threat.
As for the potential overthrow of the regime in Iran, the supreme leader’s regime has long acted against Egypt by funding armed groups in Sinai. However, Cairo views the dismantling of the Tehran regime as a potentially disastrous outcome that would have serious repercussions for the region.
The American experiment in regime change in Afghanistan and Iraq has failed. In both cases, the removal of leaders did not lead to organized democracy, but rather produced insurgency, institutional collapse, and long-term instability. The resulting power vacuum was filled by armed groups even worse than the previous regimes.
Egypt is engaging with Turkey through calculations, and rapprochement. The goal is to counter Israel’s military dominance in the region. Cairo is also cautiously monitoring the resurgence of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is taking place with the support of Turkey and Qatar, and which has already succeeded in Syria with Washington’s backing. Cairo views any further Turkish expansion as support for the Islamist project in the region.
Greece, currently in the other camp, along with Israel and Cyprus, are the three parties openly confronting Turkish influence. But in the background, relations between Egypt, Greece, and Cyprus remain unchanged, rooted in history, friendship, shared ties, and common interests. This is the message Cairo consistently conveys: Greece and Cyprus are historical allies, and this will not be altered by the current Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement, which is developing thanks to a convergence of interests, though underlying concerns persist.
And the Middle East?
After a war with Iran, the old order in the Middle East will end, and more influential players will emerge in the region. There will be a shift from growing Shiite to Sunni influence, and perhaps a resurgence of Islamist groups if Washington doesn’t curb them.
We will also witness a new shadow war between Israel and Turkey. However, the final shape of the new Middle East remains unclear, and the answer will emerge in the coming months, not years.