Will Israel’s potential Syria security deal intensify its rivalry with Turkey? Ben Caspit / AL-MONITOR

Al-Monitor, 26 of August 2025

Israeli experts warn that a security deal with Syria won’t ease tensions with Turkey or end the ongoing battle for regional influence.

TEL AVIV — The historic US-mediated discussions on an Israeli-Syrian security agreement appear to be making progress, but diplomats and security experts are warning that a deal could also exacerbate the tense competition between the region’s top two powers — Israel and Turkey — over influence in Syria.  

Recent talks between top Israeli and Syrian officials have generated a flurry of reports about a deal to de-escalate tensions. Some even suggest the possibility of a trilateral meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in September, involving US President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa.

Last week, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani met in Paris with an Israeli delegation led by Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer. The talks focused on de-escalation, noninterference in Syrian affairs and agreements aimed at supporting regional stability, according to the Syrian Arab News Agency.

Turkey in the background

Sharaa himself on Sunday confirmed reports that his government was in “advanced” talks with Israel on a security agreement based on the 1974 Israeli-Syrian disengagement lines. However, he downplayed the prospects of a peace deal with Israel at this time. On Monday, he met in Damascus with US Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack, according to a statement from the Syrian president’s office. Barrack had just come from Israel, where he met with Netanyahu a day earlier.

“Israel and Syria are discussing in good faith a potential security agreement. They have mutual intent and desire, but there is still more work to do. Constructive dialogue between these states is the on ramp to a long-lasting understanding, » Barrack told Axios. 

However, a senior Israeli security source told Al-Monitor that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would not cede his country’s influence in Syria. The source added that Israel views Erdogan’s foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, as the one who effectively “manages” Sharaa.

“The Turks are guided by an Ottoman concept of renewing Turkey’s influence throughout the Mediterranean Basin. Erdogan has been the key supporter of Sharaa’s rebel group and the first foreign country to offer him support when he came to power, » the Israeli security source said on condition of anonymity. Therefore, he argued, not even the United States will succeed in driving a wedge between Syria and Turkey. 

« That is not Barrack’s goal. He is trying to draw lines demarcating the sector between Turkey and Israel and also set red lines, » he noted.

Both Israel and Syria have vested interests in a security deal. Sharaa seeks international recognition for his new government and an influx of aid to rebuild the country after years of civil war. Israel, meanwhile, wants to demilitarize southern Syria to prevent entrenchment by Islamist forces and the deployment of strategic weapons that could interfere with the air corridor its fighter jets currently use to reach Iran. 

However, a senior Israeli diplomatic source warned that the Iran-led axis that had long threatened Israel’s existence could be replaced by a Sunni coalition led by the Muslim Brotherhood — stretching from Qatar, through Damascus and ending in Ankara. Even so, Turkish influence in Syria is considered far more palatable to Israel than Iran’s was.

“Turkey is a member of NATO and very close to the Trump administration. Although Erdogan has marked Israel as an enemy, we have no intention of going to war with Turkey — although in the Middle East anything is possible » the diplomatic source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity.

Israel is mostly concerned about a Turkish military presence in Syria, especially in the northern Kurdish-majority area, that could expand further south. 

« Turkey seeks dominance in rebuilding the Syrian army too, mirroring its efforts in Azerbaijan, though those attempts faced serious obstacles. In Syria, it seems more realistic, so Israel has to make sure that it does not lose control, » a former senior Israeli intelligence source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. « The key man is Fidan. There are quite a few people in Israel who know him well. He is a very serious man but also very determined. He wants Syria to be a Turkish proxy. »

In general, the security and political establishment in Israel supports a security agreement with Syria, but not at any price and not under any conditions. « Pay attention to the Jordanians, » a former senior Israeli security official told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. « They are very suspicious of Syria. They did not open the border for humanitarian aid to the Druze as we did, they do not trust Sharaa and are not convinced that he is not al-Qaeda disguised in a Western suit. They are now moving for the first time to conscription into the Jordanian army, and this symbolizes the level of suspicion. » 

Bridging the divide

The Syrians are demanding that Israel withdraw to the 1974 armistice lines established after their war a year earlier. Israel, for its part, insists on maintaining its presence on the peak of the strategically located Syrian side of Mount Hermon, along with the complete demilitarization of the Syrian Golan Heights, between Daraa and the Israeli border.  

Israel is also demanding guarantees for the safety of Syria’s Druze minority, following last month’s sectarian massacre in which government forces were allegedly complicit. The influence of Israel’s Druze minority was reflected in the fact that its spiritual leader, Sheikh Muwaffaq Tarif, joined the Israeli delegation in Paris.

The sides discussed creating a humanitarian aid corridor from Israel to the Druze region in southern Syria, but the proposal faces opposition from both Damascus and some in Israel. Opponents in Israel warn that such a move would make the country de facto responsible for the security and welfare of the Druze in Syria.

The agreement is expected to include extensive reconstruction of Syria, led by the United States and funded by the Gulf states. Israel hopes the move will counterbalance Turkish influence by injecting billions into Syria and rehabilitating its economy.