Ankara’s growing defense industry offers Europe new opportunities, but political rifts and technological hurdles may limit its reach.
As the United States presses European NATO allies to boost defense spending, it is simultaneously scaling back its own military commitments, creating an opening for Turkey to position its defense industry as a key supplier.
Turkey is already taking concrete steps to expand its role within the alliance, selling European allies drones, armored vehicles and naval platforms, while also participating in joint development programs. As Europe faces production shortfalls and interoperability challenges, Ankara’s industrial agility offers a potential solution, even as sanctions and technological dependencies constrain the scope of its contributions.
Since Trump’s first term (2017-2021), the United States has signaled that it might not defend allies who fail to meet the agreed-upon benchmark of spending at least 2% of their national income on defense, a target set at the 2014 NATO summit in Wales. That figure was raised to 5% by 2035 at the June summit in The Hague.
Under Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, an attack on one ally is considered an attack on all, underscoring the stakes of meeting these commitments.
Turkey’s growing role in NATO is not just theoretical. On Sept. 4, Turkish Director of Defense Industries (SSB) Haluk Gorgun met with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte on the sidelines of the Prague Defense Summit, organized by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. SSB, Turkey’s main agency responsible for procuring military hardware and munitions for the armed forces and security services, has become a growing presence in NATO’s defense-industrial network. Gorgun announced the meeting on social media, thanking Rutte for “always praising the progress … of the Turkish defense industry and its contributions to NATO deterrence.”
Rutte, the former Dutch prime minister, has often claimed that Russia outproduces all 32 NATO members in critical defense items, such as artillery pieces and shells, giving Moscow an advantage in its war against Ukraine. In January he said, “What Russia is producing … in three months, it’s what all of NATO is producing from Los Angeles up to Ankara in a full year, and Russia is not bigger than the Netherlands and Belgium combined as an economy.”
Officials and experts from Turkey and several Western countries told Al-Monitor that while Turkey is already well embedded in NATO’s defense-industrial ecosystem, both Ankara and its European partners must make strategic decisions about which programs to pursue independently and which to develop collaboratively, particularly as the United States steps back from its traditional role as Europe’s primary security guarantor.
Turkey’s industry at NATO forefront
A Turkish national security official speaking on condition of anonymity emphasized that Turkey offers unique advantages to Europe because it never had a “peace dividend” after the Cold War. “We were dealing with domestic and cross-border terrorism and often had tense relations with Moscow in the 1990s, which meant we had a very early start in building up our defense industries and modernizing our military,” he said.
The official also challenged Rutte’s focus on production totals: “The 32 allies are producing more equipment and munitions than Russia — NATO’s challenge is not production but logistics, especially in making sure that the items produced are interoperable.” He cited former EU Commission Vice President Federica Mogherini’s 2019 article noting that the US fields 30 major weapon systems, while EU members operate 178, complicating equipment-sharing during crises.
Highlighting Turkey’s strategic focus, the official said the country must “mind costs, focus on niche fields and maximize our financial and political gains,” adding that its defense-industrial dynamism has made Ankara an attractive partner even for countries that previously criticized or refused to sell equipment to Ankara.
Western diplomats, speaking to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, reinforced this view. One said, “Instead of individual systems that Turkey produces in a cost-effective manner and are beginning to match their Western counterparts in quality, the question is what sort of a defense and security architecture Europe will build in the years ahead.” Another added, “NATO countries ought to set clear guidelines regarding who builds which system so as to foster a strong R&D, production and trade ecosystem.”
Political, technological constraints
Cigdem Ustun, secretary-general of the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, an Istanbul-based think tank, said Europe is keenly aware of the stakes: “Europeans are defenseless against Russia without NATO, so nobody in Europe wants to give up on the alliance.” She noted that Russia’s social media campaigns fomenting anti-NATO sentiment are particularly effective in countries such as Slovakia, Hungary and Romania, which are more critical of the Western role in Ukraine. Ustun, who is also a professor of international relations at Nisantasi University, added that sudden shifts in US policy under US President Donald Trump had “triggered a crisis of confidence in Europe.”
While Turkey has expanded its industrial reach, it faces political and technological constraints. US and European sanctions, imposed over Ankara’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 system and its operations in Syria, continue to limit access to key technologies. These sanctions also led to Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program and ongoing uncertainty over F-16 Block 70 purchases. The Turkish official noted that Turkey remains reliant on critical mineral imports from China to sustain its defense industries.
A Turkish defense industry expert, speaking on condition of anonymity, noted that while the United States accounts for 60-65% of NATO’s defense budget, little of that goes to Europe. “Even with extra spending, challenges remain,” he said, citing uncertainty over F-16 purchases and the need for US-made engines for Turkey’s stealth fighter and jet trainer projects.
Turkey has already sold European allies major platforms, including drones to Poland and Croatia, replenishment ships to Portugal, and armored land systems to Romania and Estonia. Aselsan, Turkey’s military-electronics giant, is part of a NATO initiative to design a modular ground-based air defense system for Europe alongside Airbus, Lockheed Martin UK, Raytheon and Thales. The defense industry expert noted that Steel Dome, Turkey’s integrated air and missile defense system, could serve as a model for interoperability: “Turkish companies involved in Steel Dome could produce ‘ready to plug’ radars, sensors, missiles and anti-aircraft artillery for Europe.”
Turkey’s industrial expansion is complemented by investments such as Baykar’s acquisition of Italy’s Piaggio and SYS/Canik Arms’ purchase of the British AEI Systems. Yet political hurdles remain. Turkey’s ambitions in EU defense frameworks, including the SAFE defense credit arrangement, are challenged by Greece and Greek Cyprus, while broader US sanctions and regional tensions limit its full potential.
Ustun added, “Where there is a will, there is a way. If both sides play it smart — and the field looks conducive to that — Turkey-EU relations can develop along more pragmatic lines.”